This week’s prediction
U.S. wheat estimate for week 16 (April 20, 2026)
Yield range from 46.2 to 51.3
Predicted yield of 48.7
Acreage range from 23,686 to 25,089 (1,000 acres)
Predicted acres of 24,387 (1,000 acres)
Production range from 1,093 to 1,287 million bu
Predicted production of 1,188 million bu
Total U.S. production is 15% below last year
Introduction
The USDA collects weekly crop condition data throughout the growing season. Crops are rated on a scale from very poor to excellent. For winter wheat, these estimates are reported over a few weeks in late fall, then resume in the spring. In this publication, Ibendahl estimates U.S. winter wheat yields, harvested acres, and total wheat production based on the crop condition report from NASS for week 16 (April 20, 2026). The U.S. estimates are an aggregation of the 18 leading winter wheat states with an adjustment for the remaining states.
For a full description of the procedures and model, readers are encouraged to read Kansas Wheat Yield Outlook for 2026. This publication describes how both yields and acres are estimated. While USDA crop condition reports can be useful for predicting yields, models predicting wheat yields are not as reliable as those for corn and soybeans. Wheat can often look terrible in the field yet still produce good yields.
Results
Figure 1 is a Likert graph of the U.S. crop conditions for the last 30 years in the U.S. The Likert graph is centered on the fair category to make comparisons among years easier. The number on the left-hand side of the figure is the total for the very poor and poor categories, while the number on the right-hand side is the total for the good and excellent categories.
Figure 2 is a Likert graph of the U.S. crop conditions for the current year. Not all states were reporting data for week #13, so the number for the U.S. is suspect (week #13).
Figure 3 is the estimated harvested acres for the leading wheat states with the U.S. total scaled to account for the other wheat states. Estimating harvested acres can be a challenge as evidenced by the low R-squared values in many states. The estimate of harvest acres actually estimates the percent of planted acres that are harvested instead of acres directly.
Figure 4 is the estimated yield for each of the leading wheat states, while Figure 5 is the estimated wheat production. Because the yield per acre from the individual states can’t be summed together, the national yield per acre is calculated from the total production divided by the total harvested acres. Total U.S. wheat production is calculated by adjusting the production from the 18 leading wheat states upward based on the historic relationship between U.S. production and the production from the 18 leading wheat states.
Implications
Drought conditions continue to impact large areas where winter wheat is grown. A visual inspection of the Drought Monitor would suggest this national forecast will worsen over the next few weeks. Currently, U.S. production is 15% below last year. However in Kansas, wheat production is estimated to be 30% below last year.
Implications
Producers should consider these results as a guideline. The low R-squared values across many states suggest that producers should consider the confidence interval carefully and not rely solely on the estimated value. While rains could certainly improve this forecast, the drought monitor and reports from farmers suggest it could get a lot worse.
